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Hello bettors, this week we’re going to look together at how to unearth value bets and how make money with sports betting. As a professional bettor, you need to acquire a certain discipline that will enable you to make winning predictions. The aim? To make the most money. So the days of making your ticket by wet-fingering in a bar 1 hour before the match are over. It’s time to start acquiring some solid pro betting skills, and that’s the aim of this week’s article. What are the different ways of finding value bets to make the best possible prediction and pocket the big bucks? Lets see how to make money with sports betting.
The concept of percentage odds
Let’s start with the basics and review the concept of odds. In a sports match, two teams or players face off. For example, in a tennis match, if Djokovic plays Tsitsipas, there’s a good chance that Djokovic’s odds will be higher than Tsitsipas’s, because Djokovic is world No. 1 while Tsitsipas is No. 7.
So let’s assume that the Djokovic odds are 1.50 and the Tsitsipas odds are 2.80. If you bet $100 on a Djokovic victory and he wins, you’ll pocket $150 in winnings or $50 in profits (bet x odds = winnings. Winning-bet=profit). Odds simply reflect the probability of an event occurring. The lower the odds, the more likely an event is to occur. Conversely, the higher the odds, the less likely the event is to occur. Normally, the vast majority of you are already familiar with these concepts.
The science of value bets
Let’s start with the basics and review the concept of odds. In a sports match, two teams or players face off. For example, in a tennis match, if Djokovic plays Tsitsipas, there’s a good chance that Djokovic’s odds will be higher than Tsitsipas’s, because Djokovic is world No. 1 while Tsitsipas is No. 7. So let’s assume that the Djokovic odds are 1.50 and the Tsitsipas odds are 2.80. If you bet $100 on a Djokovic victory and he wins, you’ll pocket $150 in winnings or $50 in profits (bet x odds = winnings. Winning-bet=profit). Odds simply reflect the probability of an event occurring. The lower the odds, the more likely an event is to occur. Conversely, the higher the odds, the less likely the event is to occur. Normally, the vast majority of you are already familiar with these concepts.
- 100/1.50 = 66.66% Djokovic has 66.66% to win the match
- 100/ 2.80 =35.71% Tsitsipas has 35.71% to win the match
How bookies determine odds ?
The question on everyone’s mind is how do bookmakers determine odds? Well, unsurprisingly, they use a variety of factors to determine the odds of an event occurring:
- The past performances of Djokovic and Tsitsipas. Since Djokovic is objectively better than Tsitsipas, he will generally have lower odds than his opponent.
- Bookmakers also use complex statistical models to analyze data on both players. They examine variables such as recent results, individual statistics, performance trends and the history of direct confrontations between the opponents.
- Bookmakers assess the strengths and weaknesses of both players. This can include factors such as fitness, injuries, coaching changes, weather conditions and other relevant variables, such as the type of ground on which they will face each other.
- Bookmakers also take into account external factors such as player popularity, bettors’ preferences, rumours and information from media sources.
- Bookmakers often adjust their odds according to market demand. If many punters are betting on a specific outcome, the odds may change to reflect this betting activity.
- In short, by combining these different factors, bookmakers establish odds that they believe reflect the relative likelihood of different possible outcomes, for all sporting fixtures. Sometimes, odds may vary from one bookmaker to another, depending on their own analysis and commercial strategies.
- As you can see, with all these factors, bookmaker odds are rarely far off the mark. Sometimes, however, odds are misjudged. These are called VALUE BET odds, and we’ll show you how to spot them. And this is the best way to make money with sports betting.
Value bets: the best way to make money
Based on your analysis, if you assess that an event has a greater chance of occurring than the odds proposed by the bookmaker, then you’re holding a VALUE BET.
Let’s take the odds of Djokovic 1.50 and Tsitsipas 2.80. We’ve determined that Tsitsipas has about a 35% chance of winning, but let’s say you hear from a reliable source that Djokovic is suffering from thigh pain for this match. You then have to take this information into account when reassessing Tsitsipas’s chances of winning. If Djokovic is weakened, he has very little chance of winning against an opponent as dangerous as Tsitsipas.
Value bets are the odds that will allow you to make money with sports betting over the long term. And if you make money, we make money. So we’re going to help you find value bets.
How to find value bets ?
To do this, you have no choice. You need to keep abreast of the latest news on the leagues you’re betting on by carrying out a daily sports watch. Most of the time, you’ll find this information on social networks, because that’s where the news comes out first. So you need to scan the accounts of the clubs you follow, and place your bets before the information reaches the press and bookmakers. The aim is to be quick enough to take advantage of the odds before they are changed by the bookmakers.
Opportunities can vary. The team’s best player may be absent at the last minute for the match, a political affair may break out in a club and destabilize the team. The motivation of teams is also a factor, depending on their objectives. A team aiming for the Champions League may be less committed to a domestic league match. All information is good to take to find a value bet.
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