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Risk of ruin calculator: the target before the limit
Enter a win rate, average odds and a stake to get your chance of reaching a profit target before a maximum loss. Prefilled with a 5,000 challenge.
No. 1 Our pick
Prime Sports Funded One step at +35%, no time limit
PROMO25: 25% off, applied at checkout
1 Game time
Your numbers, your chance
Change any field: the result updates as you type. Odds can be American (-110) or decimal (1.91). Stakes are a flat share of the starting bankroll.
2 The stat sheet
How the chance is worked out
The calculator follows every possible sequence of wins and losses, bet by bet. A sequence stops when it reaches the target, hits the maximum loss or runs out of bets. There are no random draws: the result is exact, rounded to the percent.
With several phases, each one starts over with the same rules, so the chances multiply. The real cost divides the fee by the chance of passing: on average, you also pay for the attempts that fail.
Funded account Real cost = fee ÷ chance of passing
Beating the break-even rate is not enough: the target has to come before the loss limit.
The bankroll management guide puts numbers on losing streaks.
Real cost: challenge price ÷ chance of getting funded. Flat stakes, average odds of -110 (1.91).
How we calculate
- Three profiles: 54% of bets won and 2 bets a day; 55% and 3; 57% and 4.
- Each operator is modeled at the stake that gives it the best chance, within its allowed range.
- Not simulated: daily loss limits, minimum number of bets, activity targets, consistency rules.
- Prime Sports Funded price with code PROMO25.
- The math holds for these profiles, not for every bettor.
The turning point
Prefilled: one step, no clock
The form opens on Prime Sports Funded's 5,000 challenge: +35% before a 20% loss, one phase, no time limit, 2% of the starting balance per bet. At 55% and -110 (1.91), that gives 72% and a real cost of €114, the same figures as our standings.
Try 30 days at three bets a day: the chance drops, because many runs are still going when the clock stops.
Prime Sports Funded +35% in one step, no time limit
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Frequently asked questions
What is risk of ruin in sports betting?
The chance of losing a set share of your bankroll before you reach your goal. It depends on your win rate, the odds and the stake: a bigger stake reaches the target sooner, and the loss limit sooner too.
What win rate do you need at -110?
52.4% to break even at -110 (1.91). Above that you have an edge, but a challenge also asks you to reach the target before the loss limit. For our steady profile, 55% with 2% stakes, Prime Sports Funded's +35% before a 20% loss passes 72% of the time.
Does a time limit change the result?
Yes. A limit caps the number of bets, and a run still going when the clock stops counts as a fail. Enter the days and the bets per day to see the difference.
Is the result a prediction?
No. It assumes your win rate is right and that bets are unrelated, at the same odds and the same stake. Real results will vary around it.
Final score
Run your numbers, then pick a size
The 5,000 challenge costs €81.75 with code PROMO25, down from €109.
Prime Sports Funded No. 1 in our standings
PROMO2525% off, applied at checkoutCopy