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Betting odds explained: probability and vig

Odds show what a winning bet returns, and the probability implied by that price.

No. 1 Our pick

Prime Sports Funded Same average odds, more time to build volume

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PROMO25: 25% off, applied at checkout

  1. 1 Formats
  2. 2 Probability
  3. 3 The vig
  4. 4 Time
  5. 5 Challenge

1 The scoreboard

Three formats for the same price

Odds are the price of a bet. They say what a winning stake returns in decimal format, or how much you win or need to stake in American format.

To convert: +150 becomes 1 + 150 ÷ 100 = 2.50. -200 becomes 1 + 100 ÷ 200 = 1.50. 3/2 becomes 1 + 3 ÷ 2 = 2.50.

2 The stat sheet

Turn odds into probability

Implied probability is the break-even point of the bet. In decimal odds, it is 1 ÷ odds. At -110 (1.91), it is 52.4%: you need to win more often to have an edge.

Decimal odds Implied probability = 1 ÷ odds

Implied probability of five prices
  • -400 (1.25) 80.0%
  • -200 (1.50) 66.7%
  • -110 (1.91) 52.4%
  • +150 (2.50) 40.0%
  • +200 (3.00) 33.3%

Calculation: 1 ÷ decimal odds. -110 is 1.91 after rounding.

Going the other way, a one-in-four chance gives 1 ÷ 0.25 = 4.00. The Kelly criterion uses that break-even point before it gives a stake.

3 The replay

Payout rate, overround and sportsbook vig

A market groups every possible outcome. With no margin, implied probabilities would add up to 100%. They add up to more: that excess funds the sportsbook. The overround is the sum of implied probabilities minus 100%.

Full market Payout rate = 1 ÷ sum of implied probabilities

  1. 1 Two sides at -110 (1.91). Each side is 52.36%, or 104.7% in total.
  2. 2 Payout rate. 1 ÷ 1.0471 = 95.5%.
  3. 3 Vig. 100% − 95.5% = 4.5%.

With three outcomes at +110 (2.10), +240 (3.40) and +260 (3.60), the sum reaches 104.8%. The payout rate is 95.4%, and the vig is 4.6%. To strip the vig from one side, divide its probability by the sum: 47.6 ÷ 104.8 = 45.4%.

Key takeaway

For a value bet, your estimated probability must exceed 1 ÷ decimal odds, vig included. Stripping the vig estimates the market's probability, not the break-even point.

Convert any price and find its vig with the betting odds calculator.

The big play

A good price needs volume

Reading a price gives you a threshold. Beating it once proves nothing: an edge needs a run of bets.

A challenge adds another constraint: reach the target before the loss limit. With no time limit, you do not have to force picks to fit a calendar.

Prime Sports Funded +35% in one step, no time limit

See the challenge at your pace

PROMO2525% off, applied at checkout

5 Overtime

In a challenge, odds are only one assumption

The site's calculation uses average odds of -110 (1.91), then compares three profiles: 54%, 55% or 57% of bets won. It is not a promise. It is a shared baseline for measuring operators' rules.

The standings below count what a funded account really costs: the challenge price divided by the chance of passing, on the steady profile. The assumptions stay visible under the list.

Steady profile: 55% of bets won at -110 (1.91), 3 bets a day

  1. 1 Prime Sports Funded Challenge €114 real cost

    72% chance of getting funded. €81.75 with code PROMO25 (€109 without).

    See the No. 1
  2. MySportsFunding Instant Funding €499 real cost

    €499.

Priced in pounds

  • GetBet Funded Standard plan £225 real cost

    34% chance: 54%, then 63%. 90 bets at most in 30 days. £76 price shown with the operator's 20% discount, no published end date.

Priced in US dollars

  • Bankroll U Combine $292 real cost

    $245. Based on: Combine only.

  • Fan Funded 3 Step $435 real cost

    14% chance: 52% per phase, 3 times in a row. 90 bets at most in 30 days. $59.99.

Not ranked: Playvo (bankroll size not published), OddsON (stake limits not published; accounts of 5,000 and up not yet on sale).

See the standings on all three profiles

Real cost: challenge price ÷ chance of getting funded. Flat stakes, average odds of -110 (1.91).

How we calculate
  • Three profiles: 54% of bets won and 2 bets a day; 55% and 3; 57% and 4.
  • Each operator is modeled at the stake that gives it the best chance, within its allowed range.
  • Time-limited challenge: the number of bets is capped by the profile's pace.
  • Several phases: the chances multiply.
  • Not simulated: daily loss limits, minimum number of bets, activity targets, consistency rules.
  • Bankroll U is taken at its Combine, the lowest real cost among the offers considered for this matchup, on the steady profile. Five levels: not ranked (higher real cost on the steady profile).
  • Bankroll U: Combine only, which opens the Rookie level at 10% of profits.
  • Fan Funded is taken at its 3 Step, the lowest real cost among the offers considered for this matchup, on the steady profile. 2 Step: not ranked (higher real cost on the steady profile). Blitz: not ranked (too close to call: the gap depends on the exchange rate).
  • GetBet Funded: price shown with the operator's 20% discount, no published end date.
  • Prime Sports Funded price with code PROMO25.
  • Amounts are shown in each operator's own currency, with no conversion. Operators are not ranked across currencies.
  • The math holds for these profiles, not for every bettor.

Frequently asked questions

How do betting odds work?

Odds are prices. In decimal odds, they multiply the stake: $10 at 1.91 returns $19.10, including $9.10 of profit. In American odds, -110 means staking $110 to win $100, and +150 means winning $150 on a $100 stake.

How do you convert odds to a percentage?

Divide 1 by the decimal odds. At 2.50, the implied probability is 40%. In American odds, +150 gives 100 ÷ (150 + 100) = 40%, and -200 gives 200 ÷ (200 + 100) = 66.7%.

What do plus and minus signs mean in betting odds?

A plus sign gives the profit on a $100 stake: +150 wins $150. A minus sign gives the stake needed to win $100: -200 means staking $200 to win $100.

What is the vig?

The vig, or juice, is the sportsbook's margin. Add the implied probabilities of every outcome, turn that total into a payout rate, then subtract it from 100%. Two sides at -110 (1.91) give a 4.5% vig.

How do you calculate the payout rate?

Add the implied probabilities of every outcome, then divide 1 by that sum. Two outcomes at 1.91 add up to 104.7%, so the payout rate is 1 ÷ 1.0471 = 95.5%.

The verdict

Read the price, keep the time

The 5,000 challenge costs €81.75 with code PROMO25, down from €109.

Prime Sports Funded No. 1 in our standings

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